Global 2025 Aircraft Delivery Shortfalls By 5,300, Aviation Sector’s Most Significant Constraint

From Kisho Kumari Sucedaram

GENEVA, Dec 9 (Bernama) -- Global aircraft delivery shortfalls in 2025 now total at least 5,300 aircraft, making aircraft availability one of the most significant constraints on industry growth, according to the Geneva-based International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Its director for flight and technical operations, Stuart Fox, said the order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft, representing almost 60 per cent of the active fleet.

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“Historically, this ratio was steady at around 30 to 40 per cent, and this backlog is equivalent to nearly 12 years of the current production capacity,” he said during the IATA Global Media Day held here today. 

While deliveries of new aircraft began to pick up in late 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, Fox said demand is forecast to outstrip the availability of aircraft and engines.

He also said the normalisation of the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before 2031 to 2034, given irreversible losses in deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog.

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“The average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years, with 12.8 years for aircraft in the passenger fleet, 19.6 years for cargo aircraft and 14.5 years for the wide-body fleet,” he said. 

As production bottlenecks continue, Fox also said delivery delays were compounded by several factors, including airframe production outpacing engine production and longer timelines for new aircraft certification, which delay entry into production or service, particularly impacting the long-haul fleet renewal.

“Also, tariffs on metals and electronics resulting from United States-China trade tensions have worsened some supply bottlenecks and raised some maintenance costs. A shortage of skilled labour, especially in engine and component manufacturing, is constraining production ramp-up plans,” he said. 

Not only that, but Fox also noted that the fragility of the aerospace supply chain could become an acute constraint amid economic uncertainty, shifting tariff regimes, and tight labour markets.

“As a result, even small disruptions can be difficult to resolve and balloon to significant production delays,” he added.

-- BERNAMA