By CW Sim

Trump’s tariffs aren’t about trade. They are instruments of domination. And the world now stands at a crossroads – with only one path preserving dignity and sovereignty.

This is not a trade war. It is a global hostage operation.

On April 2, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order that redrew the foundations of international commerce. The so-called Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order imposed blanket tariffs on all US imports, granting himself broad powers to escalate duties based on perceived disloyalty. This was not policy – it was pressure. It wasn’t negotiation – it was collection.

Trump is not bluffing. He is demanding. His message is clear: “Trade with America – on my terms – or pay for your defiance.”

A Global Shakedown Disguised as Reform

By invoking a national emergency over America’s trade deficit, Trump bypassed Congress and international norms to launch an aggressive tariff regime.

A flat 10 per cent tariff was imposed on all imports, with additional penalties on selected targets: Vietnam at 46 per cent, India, Malaysia, and others ranging from 24 per cent to 36 per cent. For China, the total cumulative tariffs – if threatened increases materialise – could surpass 60 per cent.

The European Union’s proposal for a “Zero for Zero” tariff framework was rejected outright, unless accompanied by full political alignment with Washington’s priorities.

No alliance is exempt. No friendship is sacred. What was once a multilateral trading order has become a toll gate – and Trump holds the keys.

Countries which retaliate are threatened with escalation. Those which submit receive no exemptions. Some governments have already adjusted tariffs in favour of US goods, hoping to de-escalate. But silence meets them. Because Trump isn’t aiming for balance. He’s enforcing obedience.

The Three Reactions – and Their Future

Across the world, three responses have emerged.

First, the Kneelers. These countries rush to offer unilateral concessions, believing early submission will earn them safety. But paying once only encourages more demands. These nations find their autonomy diminished, their economies restructured, around foreign pressure.

Second, the Fighters. Some have chosen to push back – not merely with tariffs, but with structural strategies. They are strengthening domestic markets, diversifying supply chains, expanding partnerships across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and accelerating digital finance systems to reduce exposure to dollar-based coercion. This path is difficult, but sovereign. And if sustained, it may allow them not just to survive – but to shape a new order.

Third, the Frozen. These are the governments that neither kneel nor resist – hoping neutrality will buy protection. But in Trump’s calculus, silence is weakness. These nations risk being ignored, bypassed, or punished without explanation. Inaction offers no defence. It only postpones reckoning.

Herd Instinct: What Southeast Asia Must Remember

In Southeast Asia, where resilience is often rooted in collective instinct, one simple truth stands tall: A lion will attack a lone buffalo – but hesitates when facing the entire herd.

Trump’s strategy thrives on fragmentation. When nations respond individually, they become easier to intimidate or isolate. But if a region like ASEAN can present even a loosely coordinated front – rooted in shared economic priorities – it can reshape the dynamics of coercion.

The lion may be powerful, but it fears a circle of horns.

This Isn’t About Fairness. It’s About Control.

Trump’s strategy has little to do with correcting imbalances. It is about leverage. Tariffs are no longer tools of economic correction – they are signals of supremacy. Each increase is not an adjustment. It’s a command.

If normalised, this model will turn global trade from a system of reciprocity into one of extortion. The dollar – once a stabilising force – becomes a political weapon. And economic openness turns into a mechanism of subjugation.

What the World Must Build Next

The world must not merely react. It must rebuild.

Nations need new frameworks – digital clearing systems, regional settlement corridors, and trade compacts that reduce the risk of dependency on politicised platforms. A quiet shift is already underway, as countries seek to insulate their economies with tools of sovereignty.

Initiatives such as the Malaysia-China Civilisational Cooperation Framework represent more than bilateral diplomacy. They offer a values-based alternative – rooted in mutual respect, institutional continuity, and non-coercive multilateralism.

This is not about creating blocs. It is about restoring balance – before imbalance becomes the norm.

Final Word: This Is Precision Coercion

What we are witnessing is not chaos. It is intentional. Trump is not dismantling global order blindly. He is replacing it – rule by rule – with one where leverage matters more than law, and submission is a new currency.

For every government watching, the choices are brutally simple:

Kneel – and negotiate your decline.

Freeze – and risk irrelevance.

Or rise – and shape a new strategic foundation with those who refuse to be silenced.

The hostage economy thrives only if the world continues to play along. It ends the moment we stop.

-- BERNAMA

CW Sim is a Senior Fellow of Strategic Pan Indo Pacific Arena (SPIPA).