By Wan Muhammad Aslah Wan Razali
KUALA LUMPUR, May 10 (Bernama) – The upcoming 46th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur is expected to serve as a strategic platform for the region to navigate evolving global trade dynamics, with academics offering differing views on the potential impact of renewed United States (US) tariff actions and ASEAN’s growing engagement with emerging economic blocs.
Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia (USIM)’s Faculty of Economics and Muamalat Professor Dr Nuradli Ridzwan Shah Mohd Dali said the summit could be a vital platform for ASEAN to coordinate its response to uncertainties arising from US trade policies, while strengthening ties with emerging economic blocs like BRICS, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and China.
“The Trump-era tariffs in 2018 had short-term impacts on Malaysia, particularly in market sentiment and export volatility, but stabilised within nine months.
“However, with the current 90-day suspension of US reciprocal tariffs, the unpredictability remains. Any escalation could dampen Malaysia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, especially in export-reliant sectors,” he told Bernama International News Service recently.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had earlier said that Malaysia’s export performance to the US could be significantly affected by any reactivation of tariffs, though the short-term outlook remains manageable due to ongoing trade diversification efforts.
Nuradli said ASEAN must now capitalise on regional frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to strengthen intra-regional trade and present a united front.
“This is about reducing overdependence on any single market. ASEAN has a chance to lead by example through strategic regional integration. Leveraging proximity and existing trade agreements will help cushion member states from external shocks,” he said.
He said that Malaysia’s move to increase trade with BRICS, the GCC, and China is not a pivot away from the West, but rather a necessary diversification strategy.
“In today’s multipolar world, maintaining balanced relations with both Western and Eastern powers is essential. Diversification is no longer optional. It is critical for sustainable growth,” he said.
Nuradli also believes that deeper economic cooperation between ASEAN, GCC and China could pave the way for the emergence of a more cohesive trade bloc, particularly as infrastructure and logistics connectivity continue to improve under initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
“If ASEAN and GCC can align trade standards and regulatory frameworks, and with China’s economic scale as a foundation, there’s strong potential to create a counterbalance to Western-centric trade blocs,” he said.
On ASEAN’s long-term positioning, Nuradli underscored the importance of maintaining strategic neutrality.
He said ASEAN should steer clear of major power rivalries and concentrate on being a trusted and pragmatic partner to all - a balanced approach that reinforces its central role in shaping regional diplomacy and trade.
Meanwhile, University of Tasmania's Professor Dr James Chin, an expert in Asian Studies, offered a different perspective, arguing that the US reciprocal tariffs are unlikely to affect Malaysia’s trade or economy in any significant way.
“The 24 per cent tax and other trade measures are clearly designed to push countries back to the negotiation table.
“Once new trade agreements are made, it could even open more doors for American companies in Malaysia. I don’t foresee any long-term consequences—if anything, trade between Malaysia and the US could increase,” he said.
As part of its effort to reduce reliance on Western markets through deeper engagement with BRICS, the GCC, and China, Chin said Malaysia has consistently maintained an open trade policy and is willing to do business with any willing partner.
“To truly reduce dependency on the Western-dominated trade system, Malaysia must strengthen bilateral payment systems that bypass the US dollar. It’s not about stopping trade with the West, it’s about being smart and flexible,” he said.
He also noted that while political pressures may push ASEAN, GCC, and China closer in response to perceived threats to global trade, forming a fully integrated economic bloc remains uncertain.
“Politically, countries may come together out of concern over figures like Trump. But whether that results in a formal economic bloc is still a question mark,” he added.
The 46th ASEAN Summit, scheduled to take place later this month in Kuala Lumpur, is expected to bring together key regional leaders, with growing anticipation that issues related to global trade tensions and economic realignment will feature prominently in the discussions.
As the 2025 ASEAN Chair, Malaysia will host these significant events later in May - The 46th ASEAN Summit, followed by the 2nd ASEAN-GCC Summit and the ASEAN-GCC-China Economic Summit.
-- BERNAMA
