KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 29 (Bernama) -- Energy markets opened the week on a firm footing, with Brent crude oil holding above US$70 (US$1=RM4.21) a barrel, supported by a sizeable geopolitical risk premium, Rystad Energy said.
Rystad Energy chief economist and global market analysis director Claudio Galimberti said Brent’s recent gains were driven by escalating geopolitical crises from Ukraine to Iran and Venezuela.
In the near term, he said, Brent is caught between geopolitics and the unwinding of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus (OPEC+) pact, leaving the market balanced.
"With the OPEC+ pivoting toward market share, fundamentals look softer, and oversupply concerns prevail.
"Two potential swing factors are the Federal Reserve (Fed) and China: a larger-than-expected Fed move would ripple through the global economy and eventually marginally raise demand, while upside in China hinges on progress in trade talks," he said in a statement.
Galimberti said balances in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026 looked unusually long due to OPEC+ unwinding.
“It is the extremely high geopolitical risk premium that is keeping the front end of the Brent curve well above the US$60 per barrel mark,” he added.
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