BMI Maintains Brent Price Forecast At US$68 Per Barrel For 2025

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 10 (Bernama) -- BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, has maintained its Brent crude price forecast at an annual average of US$68 per barrel for 2025 and US$67 per barrel for 2026, down from US$80 per barrel in 2024.(US$1 = RM4.21).

In its latest commentary titled “Weekly Commodities Strategy: Brent Indicators Show Little Sign of Oversupply So Far”, BMI said market expectations for a sharp ramp-up in crude supply have not resulted in substantially lower prices.

It noted that the OPEC+ announcement to raise November production targets by another tranche of 137,000 barrels per day added to the significant easing of production curbs already seen across 2025.

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Brent rose 1.4 per cent from a week earlier, with markets remaining neutral to the pending rise in output as key indicators stay balanced.

“Current Brent is US$66 per barrel, a higher price point than we had expected, which poses moderate upside risk to this year’s outlook, but we expect oversupply to build in the coming quarters, pushing prices lower,” BMI said.

It added that inventories remain steady and balanced, with floating crude volumes just 2.1 per cent above the five-year average despite a recent 21 per cent increase, reflecting milder weather in the Middle East, which reduced crude use for power generation and freed more supply for export.

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BMI said European and US crude stocks also remain aligned with historical averages, while the US economy continues to show resilience despite trade policy uncertainty.

BMI has revised down its US liquids production growth forecast to 0.6 per cent for 2025 from 2.3 per cent previously.

A key support for oil prices has been China’s ongoing stockpiling, with lower prices encouraging strategic inventory building. Media reports estimate additional crude imports of between 500,000 and 750,000 barrels per day in 2025.

“If oil prices remain in their current range, the storage build should remain in play for 2026,” BMI said, adding that any slowdown in China’s crude imports could weigh heavily on prices once storage capacity nears its limits.

-- BERNAMA