GOLD FUTURES END LOWER AS DECEMBER FED RATE CUT ODDS DROP TO 40 PCT

By Durratul Ain Ahmad Fuad

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 18 (Bernama) -- Gold futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower today amid broad risk-off sentiment after investors reacted to a reduced chance of a December Fed rate cut, which now stands at around 40 per cent.

SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said that, based on interest rate futures, the odds of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the December meeting have decreased significantly to around 40 per cent from 60 per cent in just a few sessions.

“When markets sell risk because policy easing is being priced out, gold often becomes collateral damage, which is why the yellow metal is trading lower today.  

“The structural bid for the metal — central-bank buying, fiscal concerns, and strong year-to-date performance — hasn’t disappeared. But in this phase of the cycle, traders are unwinding duration-sensitive exposures across the board, and gold gets caught in that macro downdraft,” he told Bernama. 

Thus, Innes said that while risk-off is usually good for bullion, this version of risk-off is being driven by rates repricing rather than fear.

“That distinction matters, and it’s why gold is softer despite the broader market jitters,” he added.

The spot month November 2025 contract eased to US$4,039.50 per troy ounce from US$4,088.50 per troy ounce, December 2025 slipped to US$4,056.70 per troy ounce from US$4,105.70 per troy ounce, and January 2026 fell to US$4,074.70 per troy ounce from US$4,124.30 per troy ounce on Monday.

The February, April, and June 2026 contracts also settled lower at US$4,090.20 per troy ounce, up from US$4,139.80 per troy ounce previously.

Trading volume jumped to 31 lots from 13 lots yesterday, while open interest strengthened to 68 contracts from 48 contracts.

Physical gold was priced at US$4,072.50 per troy ounce, according to the London Bullion Market Association afternoon fix on Nov 17, 2025.

-- BERNAMA