MALAYSIA’S EXPORTS SET TO MAINTAIN GROWTH AMID DIVERSIFIED TRADE STRATEGIES - RESEARCH HOUSES

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 19 (Bernama) -- Malaysia’s export performance is expected to remain expansionary, given its neutral stance and diversified export structure.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd said this outlook is also supported by front-loading orders ahead of a potential trade war and continuous global demand for electrical and electronics products.

However, the bank said the uncertainty over trade policy could weigh on the global trade outlook.

“Following this, we maintain our gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts at 5.0 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) for 2024 and +4.9 per cent y-o-y for 2025,” it said in a research note today.

According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), the country’s total trade in November rose 2.9 per cent to RM237.8 billion from RM231.1 billion a year earlier, driven by growth in exports and imports.

DOSM said exports grew by 4.1 per cent to RM126.6 billion, while imports improved by 1.6 per cent to reach RM111.3 billion. 

The trade surplus surged by 26.3 per cent to RM15.3 billion, the 55th consecutive month of surplus since May 2020. 

Meanwhile, in a separate note, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd said Malaysia’s external trade outlook remains supported by the ongoing recovery in global demand amid the tech (technology) upcycle and easing monetary policies in the second half of 2024, despite potential tariff headwinds from the United States (US) protectionist policies.

“We forecast export growth to expand 5.3 per cent in 2025 (2024: +5.0 per cent), alongside a projected 5.6 per cent rise in imports (2024: +12.8 per cent) in tandem with GDP growth of five per cent (2024: +5.2 per cent).

“Although lingering trade and political uncertainties pose downside risks, Malaysia’s strategic location, advanced trade infrastructure, and proactive policy measures position it well to capitalise on opportunities in the shifting global trade environment,” CIMB said.

Echoing the same, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, in its research note, said the growth should ease worries over the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q 2024) current account balance, given that it was barely in surplus in the previous two quarters (3Q 2024: +RM2.2 billion or +0.4 per cent of GDP; 2Q 2024: +RM3 billion / +0.6 per cent of GDP).

The bank said that for the 11 months of 2024, exports and imports grew by 4.7 per cent and 13.3 per cent, respectively, resulting in a RM117.9 billion trade surplus.

“Outlook for 2025 is clouded by uncertainties over Trump 2.0’s trade and tariff policies, hence our forecasts of slower exports and imports growth of +4.5 per cent and +6.3 per cent, respectively, and a lower trade surplus of +RM112 billion,” it added.

-- BERNAMA