ADVANCE GDP LIKELY TO EXPAND 5 PCT IN 4Q 2024 - CIMB SECURITIES

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 14 (Bernama) -- Malaysia’s advance gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand five per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q 2024), moderating from 5.3 per cent in 3Q 2024, according to CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd. 

In a note today, it said Malaysia’s distributive sales growth eased to 4.7 per cent year-on-year in November 2024 (October 2024: 5.5 per cent), amid slower retail sales while wholesale and motor vehicles trade grew at relatively steady rates.

It noted that retail sales rose 5.8 per cent, wholesale trade grew 4.7 per cent and motor vehicles sales gained 1.4 per cent in November 2024.

“Despite easing in November, distributive trade sales continued to display a resilient growth of 5.1 per cent y-o-y in October-November 2024, matching the previous quarter’s pace (3Q 2024: +5.1 per cent), providing a solid foundation for 4Q 2024 GDP growth even as the moderation in industrial activity weighs on overall 4Q performance.

November 2024’s labour market also improved with a 1.4 per cent y-o-y employment growth with the unemployment rate at 3.2 per cent, its lowest since 2015, and a 26.1 per cent growth in tourist arrivals for the first 11 months of 2024, it added. 

Meanwhile, CIMB Securities expects private consumption and service activities to grow 5.5 per cent and 5.4 per cent in 2025, respectively, alongside a five per cent GDP growth.

Growth expectations for private consumption and service activities will be driven by strong domestic spending and external demand recovery, it said.

Statistics Department Malaysia is expected to release 4Q 2024 GDP estimates this Friday.

-- BERNAMA