KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 12 (Bernama) -- Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to average at RM4,100 per tonne in 2026, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB).
The bank said in a note today that assuming no major surprise announcements on Indonesia’s B50 mandate, its current base case assumption is B40, in line with the recently allocated biodiesel quota for 2026. It expected CPO prices to be dictated by seasonal trends in 2026.
“However, talks of Indonesia’s B50 plan may sway market prices in 2026, as seen in the third quarter of 2025.
“While 2026 may start on a slower note due to high brought-forward stockpiles, we would be more upbeat on CPO prices towards the end of the first quarter of 2026 as Chinese New Year (February) and Ramadhan (February-March) demand coincides with the typical low output cycle in the first quarter,” it said.
Maybank IB forecast CPO prices to trade within the RM3,700 to RM4,700 per tonne range in 2026, averaging at RM4,100 per tonne (2025: RM4,293 per tonne).
“There is, however, a five to 10 per cent upside risk to the bank’s forecast should the Indonesian government pursue the B50 mandate unconditionally.
“But it remains unclear how the Indonesian government intends to fund the proposed B50 mandate sustainably, given the wide palm oil–gas oil (POGO) spread. We believe the government may seek to raise export levies in 2026,” it said.
The bank maintained a ‘neutral’ stance on the sector, with upside risks offset by Indonesia’s regulatory risks.
“CPO price upside risks in 2026 are likely to be driven by fresh government policies, particularly Indonesia’s B50 aspiration as well as geopolitical developments. As palm oil supply growth is expected to remain muted in 2026, the CPO price upside will likely be demand-driven.
“We advocate a short-term trading strategy towards the end of the first quarter of 2026 while awaiting greater clarity from Indonesia and the United States on their reportedly ambitious biofuel targets,” it said.
-- BERNAMA
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