REGIONAL FLASHPOINTS SET TO TEST PHILIPPINES LEADERSHIP AS ASEAN CHAIR

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 17 (Bernama) -- As the Philippines settles into its 2026 ASEAN Chair role, the stalled peace process in Myanmar, persistent tensions in the South China Sea, and renewed frictions along the Cambodia–Thailand border are set to test Manila’s steady hands at the centre of some of the region’s most volatile geopolitical fault lines.

The maritime domain is widely seen as the earliest test of credibility, given the Philippines’ dual role as ASEAN Chair and a claimant state in the South China Sea — a position that demands both diplomatic restraint and regional leadership.

Analysts say the chairmanship may be defined less by new initiatives than by management of crises and expectations, as Manila soaks up competing pressures while seeking to preserve ASEAN unity and centrality.

Universiti Utara Malaysia’s School of International Studies Deputy Dean (Research and Innovation) Associate Professor Dr Siti Darwinda Mohamed Pero said the situation could push Manila into a delicate balancing act amid major-power dynamics.

“This raises questions about impartiality and consensus-building, particularly in light of its increasingly visible security engagement with the United States.

“A key test will therefore be the extent to which the Philippines can sustain open communication with China while persuading Beijing to expedite negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC) amid intensified US–China strategic rivalry in the region,” she told Bernama.

She noted that while progress on the long-delayed COC is expected to remain incremental, sustaining dialogue and preventing escalation would be essential to preserving ASEAN’s convening role.

Beyond the maritime domain, tensions along the Thailand–Cambodia border present a different kind of diplomatic test, one that the analysts said requires steady preventive engagement rather than high-profile intervention.

“While Manila maintains relatively strong relations with Bangkok, its engagement with Phnom Penh is more recent, with high-level reciprocal visits only beginning in 2025.

“This highlights both the opportunities and the constraints it faces in navigating a volatile bilateral issue while maintaining ASEAN cohesion,” Siti Darwinda said.

Associate Professor Dr Rahul Mishra of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies echoed this view, saying the Philippines’ chairmanship would be defined more by crisis containment than by policy innovation.

“The Myanmar crisis and the unsettled Thailand–Cambodia dispute remain the most immediate challenges.

“The key test will be whether ASEAN can move beyond rhetorical adherence to the Five-Point Consensus towards selective, practical engagement — humanitarian access, calibrated political outreach, and unity on process, even if outcomes remain limited.

“Managing divisions within ASEAN without fracturing it will be a central leadership challenge,” he told Bernama.

Rahul added that Manila would need to exercise caution in managing developments in the South China Sea to ensure disputes do not spill over into wider regional tensions.

“The South China Sea is a sensitive issue, but as the chair, the Philippines must take up tasks that previous presidencies have not. Progress on the COC is likely to be incremental at best; the real test will be preventing escalation while preserving ASEAN unity and relevance,” he said.

Analysts also pointed to the importance of institutional continuity, particularly through the ASEAN Troika mechanism, in helping Manila sustain momentum on ongoing regional efforts and ensure policy follow-through beyond a single chairmanship cycle.

Originally established in 2023 to address the Myanmar crisis, the Troika framework — involving the past, current, and incoming chairs — provides a platform for coordinated responses and policy consistency, especially with Malaysia preceding the Philippines and Singapore set to assume the role of chair in 2027.

Rahul said ASEAN’s credibility depends on policy continuity and consistent implementation, rather than the introduction of new initiatives with each annual chairmanship.

He said the Philippines could reinforce this by aligning its priorities with existing frameworks such as the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), while advancing long-standing agenda items, including negotiations on the South China Sea COC.

This, he said, would allow Manila to frame issues such as maritime security, supply-chain resilience, and regional developments as matters of implementation rather than shifts in direction.

At the same time, Siti Darwinda said the Philippines would do well to anchor its chairmanship firmly within existing ASEAN roadmaps and institutional commitments rather than introduce abrupt policy shifts.

She added that keeping ASEAN and ASEAN-led mechanisms central is critical, as the organisation’s effectiveness has long depended on carrying forward agreed priorities rather than recalibrating its direction with each change of chairmanship.

She noted that Manila is expected to emphasise cross-cutting priorities across all three pillars of the ASEAN Community, with particular attention to the socio-cultural dimension in line with its advocacy of people-centred cooperation.

Siti Darwinda said the approach dovetails with the Philippines’ 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship theme, ‘Navigating Our Future, Together,’ which underscores collective efforts to strengthen peace and security, enhance prosperity, and empower communities across the region.

Amid regional tensions, the Philippines’ chairmanship will be judged not by new declarations but by its ability to steady ASEAN through careful diplomacy, sustain dialogue among fragmented stakeholders, and ensure the bloc remains an effective platform for addressing shared challenges.

-- BERNAMA