WEAK RICE PRICES TILL 2026 DUE TO GLUT, SAYS INDIAN EXPORTERS FEDERATION

By Vijian Paramasivam

PHNOM PENH, Dec 2 (Bernama) -- India, the world's leading producer and exporter of rice, has warned that weak prices for the white grain are expected to persist through the end of the year and into 2026 due to oversupply. 

In addition, the prevailing erratic weather patterns in Southeast Asia are likely to disrupt production.

The Southeast Asian rice market is facing volatility as two of the world’s major rice producers – Vietnam and Thailand – are experiencing choppy weather in recent months that could stifle production.

The Indian Rice Exporters’ Federation (IREF) says any drop in production in the two Southeast Asian exporters could influence the global rice market, at least for a temporary period.

“Global prices are likely to remain low through 2025 and the market in 2026. After three years of extreme volatility, the market is facing a glut (541 million metric tonnes produced in 2024), pushing prices down,” IREF’s  National President Dr Prem Garg told Bernama from New Delhi.

The international rice market is experiencing one of the weakest rice prices in nearly a decade, with rates plunging by 35 per cent in just one year since India lifted its export ban on non-basmati rice, according to French-based Coface, a global trade credit risk management company.

Prices are hovering around US$360 (RM1,488) per metric tonne in the market. 

The regional rice market is compounded by multiple challenges this year.

Vietnam and Thailand, each exporting about eight million metric tonnes of rice annually, are currently experiencing heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides that have devastated some of their rice fields.

This situation may affect rice exports in the upcoming months.

Two major rice importers, Indonesia and the Philippines, temporarily banned rice imports to protect their domestic markets.

“Adverse weather (flooding, erratic rainfall and saltwater intrusion) in Southeast Asia, especially in major producers like Thailand and Vietnam, can affect global rice supply, and therefore influence global rice prices.

“But the net impact depends on how weather-related losses stack up against production elsewhere (for example, from India) and global demand.

“Those temporary import bans reduce near-term import demand and can stabilise downward pressure on global prices, but they won’t by themselves reverse the broader surplus-driven weakness,” said Garg, who is also the Chairman of the 118-year-old Shri Lal Mahal Group.

India is expected to ship out 24 to 25 million metric tonnes of rice in the 2025-26 period, he said. 

--  BERNAMA