GOLD’S DECEMBER OUTLOOK HINGES ON THIS WEEK AS FED DECISION NEARS — EXPERT

WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Bernama-Sputnik/RIA Novosti) -- Gold bulls, who had driven the precious metal’s price up for four straight months, will know in a week if December can be added to the tally as the Federal Reserve embarks on one of its most difficult rate decisions of the year, market strategist Phillip Streible told RIA Novosti.

"Gold’s run for 2025 has been incredible with just a few stops, but like all markets that outperform, it’s bound to be hit by volatility if expectations are not met," Streible told RIA Novosti.

"And the overwhelming expectation for December is that there will be another Fed rate cut. If that doesn’t happen, be prepared for downside that could even exclude December as a winning month."

The Fed had carried out two quarter percentage point cuts back-to-back in September and October.

The likelihood that it will do so again at its policymaking committee meeting next week, on December 10, is 89 per cent, according to a rate prediction tool monitored by US exchange group CME.

Despite such high odds, markets are uncertain if growing inflationary pressures will convince the central bank to leave rates in their current range of 3.75 per cent-4 per cent.

"Gold is trading near all-time highs against almost every single currency," said Streible, the chief metals strategist at Chicago’s Blue Line Futures. "Therefore, that tells you that it’s seeing widespread adoption. Yet, volatility is something that cannot be discounted in the near-term. And that could be gold’s fate if the Fed doesn’t deliver a cut on the 10th."

Gold’s most pronounced volatility was in October, shortly after record highs of US$4,398 for futures of the precious metal and US$4,381.60 for its spot contract.

Despite those price swings, gold managed to finish October up almost 4 per cent — extending its September run-up of almost 11 per cent and its August advance of 6 per cent. In November, it rose another 6 per cent, as bets begin to grow that the Fed will cut rates for a third time this year, in December.

Year-to-date, both the futures and spot price gold are up about 61 per cent each.

--BERNAMA-SPUTNIK/RIA NOVOSTI