By Wan Muhammad Aslah Wan Razali
KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 16 (Bernama) — The wave of major elections held in 2025 has fundamentally reshaped global political dynamics, with key nations securing strong mandates to counter rising United States (US) protectionism.
International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) academic Dr Phar Kim Beng said that while 2024 was a year of mass democratic participation globally, the electoral outcomes in 2025 — particularly in Canada, Singapore and Australia — reflect a broader strategy to safeguard multilateral trade and economic stability in the face of Washington’s unpredictable tariff agenda.
Speaking to Bernama on the geopolitical landscape following the 2024-2025 election cycle, Phar highlighted that leaders such as Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong of Singapore, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia have emerged with decisive five-year terms.
“These countries won big. Some elections were held immediately to challenge Trump, particularly in light of his looming unilateral tariffs and those launched on ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2,” Phar said, adding that these leaders had successfully rallied their electorates against the economic shocks of protectionist trade barriers.
He also observed that the global diplomatic lexicon is shifting from “coalitions of the willing” to “like-minded countries” as states seek a coordinated response to US isolationism.
Yet he cautioned that this momentum has not translated into progress on free trade, with Washington still reluctant to re-engage.
East-West Divide: Historic Shifts in Asia and Europe
Beyond the trade wars, 2025 also witnessed historic leadership reshuffles in East Asia that have altered the regional security architecture.
In Japan, the political landscape shifted with the election of Sanae Takaichi as the country's first female Prime Minister, a development that observers note signals a potential hardening of Tokyo's conservative stance on national security.
Meanwhile, South Korea has undergone a dramatic political reconstruction following the turmoil of the martial law crisis in late 2024.
The subsequent snap election in June 2025 saw the election of progressive leader Lee Jae-myung as President, forcing neighbours to recalibrate their diplomatic strategies as Seoul and Tokyo navigate their own internal restructuring.
Phar said that the election cycle brought mixed fortunes in Europe, often dictated by proximity to Russia.
He highlighted the decisive victory of the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in Moldova as a win for European integration, contrasting it with the return of populist leader Andrej Babiš in the Czech Republic, whose coalition is expected to be more critical of the EU.
He also addressed the challenges facing German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, noting that Berlin faces pressure from Washington regarding defence spending and ideological differences.
"The E3 (UK, France, and Germany) have agreed to raise their defence funding to five per cent of their GDP. But the ultimate achievement of this numerical threshold cannot be attained until 2035 or 2040," Phar said, adding that Europe's continued reliance on Russian energy complicates efforts to isolate Moscow economically.
Elections To Watch In 2026
Looking ahead, the global "election fever" is set to continue, with high-stakes polls in 2026 likely to test the resilience of both the Global South and Western democracies.
Phar noted that “the Global South should take into consideration that it is potentially on a winning streak,” pointing to the rising political influence of the Global South diaspora within Western democracies.
Citing Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York mayoral election last month, the analyst said it has demonstrated that diverse leadership rooted in Global South heritage is capable of capturing hearts and minds in the very financial capital of the West.
Meanwhile, key elections to watch in 2026 include Brazil’s general election in October, which remains a bellwether for Latin American politics, and the US Midterm elections in November, which will serve as a critical referendum on the current administration's policies.
In Asia, the focus will turn to Bangladesh, where a general election and constitutional referendum are scheduled for February 12 following the interim government period.
In some ASEAN countries, Vietnam is scheduled to hold its legislative polls in March, while Thailand is set to hold snap elections on February 8 following the House dissolution on December 12.
This high-stakes vote comes amid a volatile military standoff with Cambodia over border dispute.
In Myanmar, the situation remains fragile, where the ruling junta has announced the second phase of general elections for January 2026, a move already drawing international scrutiny, intensified by the regime's recent airstrike on the Mrauk-U General Hospital in Rakhine State, which killed over 30 civilians.
Elsewhere around the world, elections in Hungary and Sweden are expected to revisit intense European debates on migration and the far-right, while Ethiopia’s polls in June will be crucial for the stability of the Horn of Africa.
ASEAN and Future Outlook
Despite global turbulence, Phar offered a relatively stable outlook for the ASEAN region. He said Southeast Asian economies could continue to grow, citing a “truce” between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that is expected to hold until November 2026.
"As long as they are not at war, all ASEAN economies can still grow normally," he said.
However, reflecting on the broader impact of the 2024–2025 election marathon, Phar, referencing Stanford historian Stephen Kotkin, noted:
“The democracies that emerged in 2024 were not sufficiently empowered to roll back the far right. There is no impact on world order in 2024 and 2025 in the sense that wars were not stopped.”
-- BERNAMA
BERNAMA provides up-to-date authentic and comprehensive news and information which are disseminated via BERNAMA Wires; www.bernama.com; BERNAMA TV on Astro 502, unifi TV 631 and MYTV 121 channels and BERNAMA Radio on FM93.9 (Klang Valley), FM107.5 (Johor Bahru), FM107.9 (Kota Kinabalu) and FM100.9 (Kuching) frequencies.
Follow us on social media :
Facebook : @bernamaofficial, @bernamatv, @bernamaradio
Twitter : @bernama.com, @BernamaTV, @bernamaradio
Instagram : @bernamaofficial, @bernamatvofficial, @bernamaradioofficial
TikTok : @bernamaofficial
