MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT COULD ESCALATE BUT GLOBAL WAR UNLIKELY -- EXPERTS

By Wan Muhammad Aslah Wan Razali

KUALA LUMPUR, March 4 (Bernama) -- Tensions involving Iran, Zionist Regime Israel and the United States could escalate into a wider regional conflict, although the likelihood of a global war remains low, according to international relations experts.

Professor of ASEAN Studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM) Dr Phar Kim Beng said the current trajectory of tensions suggests the possibility of further escalation following recent military developments involving the US and Israel and rising tensions with Iran.

“This will escalate into a wider regional war as recent developments involving the US and Israel have heightened tensions with Iran, despite earlier negotiations that appeared to show progress towards denuclearisation,” he told Bernama in an interview.

He said the absence of credible third-party mediation is worsening the situation, noting that the current diplomatic environment lacks an effective mediator to encourage renewed negotiations between Iran, Israel and the United States.

Phar said that despite mediation offers, this void and the apparent commitment of all sides to a military approach could lead to further escalation and expansion of the conflict.

Responding to concerns about a “World War III” scenario, he said the risk remains low because major global powers are unwilling to support such an escalation.

“World War III is not likely as major global powers, including Russia, China, the United Kingdom and France, are not inclined to support a wider conflict. If anything else, China, the UK, France and Russia prefer the war to be stopped,” he said.

He added that some countries are already distancing themselves from the conflict, citing reports that Spain has declined requests for the use of its military bases for operations related to the conflict.

Phar, who is also director of the Institute of International and ASEAN Studies (IINTAS), said Russia and China could still play a diplomatic role through the United Nations Security Council to push for de-escalation.

On the economic front, he warned that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global oil supply, could have widespread repercussions.

“Depending on whether a country's economy is energy dependent on oil and gas from the Strait of Hormuz and whether an economy has high exposure to global events, the impact could be severe,” he said.

He noted that highly open economies such as Singapore and Malaysia are particularly sensitive to global shocks.

Meanwhile, international relations and defence expert at Universiti Pertahanan Nasional Malaysia (UPNM) Dr Nor Aishah Hanifa said the duration of this conflict would depend largely on political leadership and international mediation.

“If I am a realist, I will say I am sceptical about peace; war will prolong, given Iran's missile capabilities. But I want to trust liberal thoughts of optimism about the promise of a peace process and the end of the war.

“Usually, war escalates when political leaders remain unwilling to compromise and continue pursuing military options,” she told Bernama.

Nor Aishah said diplomatic efforts and rational decision-making by global powers could still prevent further escalation.

“I want to trust in the rationality of European nations on peace, and the rationality of the US Congress, especially Democratic senators, to remain strong with peace,” she said.

However, she cautioned that political leadership could still influence the direction of the conflict.

“At the same time, some political leaders may favour a more confrontational approach that could contribute to further escalation,” she added.

Furthermore, she said Malaysia could experience temporary diplomatic and economic disruptions as a result of the conflict.

“There may be temporary disruptions to Malaysia’s diplomatic engagements due to prevailing uncertainties, but the situation is expected to return to normal once the war ends,” she said, adding that the conflict could affect travel, trade, investment and education ties with countries in the Middle East.

Nor Aishah said Russia may prefer a negotiated settlement as it remains deeply involved in the war in Ukraine and may not have the capacity to engage in another major military conflict.

She also described China as a cautious and pragmatic actor likely to prioritise stability, noting that China has consistently called for an end to the conflict and had previously conducted military cooperation with Iran, including naval exercises involving Iran and Russia prior to the latest escalation.

-- BERNAMA