Malaysian Palm Oil Stock To Rise 3 Pct To 2.93 Mln Tonnes In December -- CIMB Securities

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 10 (Bernama) -- Malaysian palm oil stocks are projected to rise 3.0 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) to 2.93 million tonnes in December 2025, as a modest 2.0 per cent m-o-m increase in exports will be insufficient to offset expected output, said CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd.

It said in a research note that palm oil production is forecast to fall 11 per cent m-o-m to 1.72 million tonnes in December 2025. 

CIMB Securities also said crude palm oil (CPO) prices have weakened recently, with spot CPO at RM4,029 per tonne and three-month futures at RM4,045 per tonne. 

bootstrap slideshow

“The softness is likely due to limited follow-through on Indonesia’s B50 mandate, concerns over rising Malaysian stockpiles and lack of clarity on the US biofuel policy review.

“The buyers that stay on the sidelines given high inventories in producing countries and delay in the implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) also affected sentiment,” it said.

Meanwhile, CIMB Securities said palm oil is also facing stronger competition from other edible oils amid weaker demand from China. 

bootstrap slideshow

Hence, it said, higher-than-expected stockpile is projected to keep a lid on CPO prices until either exports strengthen meaningfully or there is clearer policy progress on biodiesel usage in the US and Indonesia. 

“The recent price decline has pushed palm oil to a slight discount to substitutes such as soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oils, which may help support exports. 

“Given our expectation of slowing output into the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonality, we believe prices will remain supported above RM4,000 per tonne, we maintain our average CPO price forecast of RM4,200 per tonne for 2026," it said, maintaining its "overweight" call on the plantation sector.

-- BERNAMA