BRENT CRUDE PRICE SLIPS MORE THAN 4 PCT OVER US-IRAN TENSION

By Siti Radziah Hamzah

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 15 (Bernama) -- Brent crude oil prices slipped more than 4.0 per cent on Thursday after Iran, among OPEC’s largest oil producers, warned that the country will retaliate against foreign threats.

This follows mounting international scrutiny, including from the United States (US), towards anti-government protests in Iran.

As of 10.22 pm, Brent slipped 4.03 per cent to US$59.52 per barrel after a G7 member said they are prepared to impose additional restrictive measures if crackdowns on protest and dissent continue.

 Earlier today, US President Donald Trump did not rule out military action over Iran’s violent crackdown on anti-government protesters.

Brent crude prices are expected to face sustained downward pressure throughout 2026, with prices projected to end the year at around US$57 per barrel, as additional supply enters a global oil market that is already in surplus, graduate economist Jack Reid from global advisory firm Oxford Economics told Bernama.

He said oil prices may trend back towards US$60 per barrel in the first quarter of the year, as markets do not expect recent geopolitical developments involving Iran and Venezuela to result in sustained supply disruptions.

“We don’t expect a sustained change from our baseline from either of these conflicts as they stand and as the protests are resolved in Iran,” Reid said.

Reid said there is currently no evidence of disruption in high-frequency oil market data in Iran, noting that the country’s oil industry has been structured to remain resilient amid internal unrest and sanctions. 

It is unlikely that labour strikes or domestic disruptions would materially affect Iran’s oil output, which has remained relatively stable and at high levels over recent years, he said.

Reid said the impact on the global oil market is expected to remain limited barring a significant escalation, including military intervention. He also said current price movements are not reflective of market pricing in a major supply shock.

Iran is facing its biggest anti-government demonstration in years, with government crackdown leading to thousands being arrested, as Trump warns of possible military action.

ABN Amro Bank senior energy economist Moutaz Altaghlibi said the oil market has responded to recent US secondary sanctions, with the US threatening to impose up to a 25 per cent tariff on goods from countries buying Iranian oil.

He added that Iran's share of global supplies is around four per cent, which is quite large. Excess supply is putting a lid on prices for now.

"I do not think traders are concerned about supply security, as seen during the 12-day war in June. 

“The real risk would be the Strait of Hormuz closure, which would affect Middle Eastern oil flow, which represents about 30 per cent of global supply. The price impact of such an event would be very high," Altaghlibi said.

-- BERNAMA