CIMB REVISES 2026 GDP FORECAST SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO 4.5 PCT

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 13 (Bernama) -- CIMB Treasury and Markets Research has revised its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast slightly upward to 4.5 per cent from 4.4 per cent previously, to reflect the stronger momentum heading into the first quarter of 2026 (1Q 2026), offset by the higher base effect in the second half of 2026.

In a research note today, it said the actual 4Q 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.3 per cent y-o-y, surpassing the advance estimate of 5.7 per cent and even the most optimistic forecast of 6.0 per cent.

“The exceptional GDP outperformance above the advance estimates (AE) was driven primarily by the stronger growth in the services.

“Overall, 2025 recorded an annual growth of 5.2 per cent, up from the 5.1 per cent achieved in 2024,” it said.

CIMB Treasury and Markets Research said that, excluding the post-pandemic period, the previous two times when GDP grew by six per cent y-o-y, or more, were in 3Q 2017 (6.0 per cent) and 2Q 2014 (6.5 per cent).

“On the other hand, we maintain our call of unchanged overnight policy rate (OPR) through 2026 at 2.75 per cent, supported by a benign inflation outlook,” it said.

CIMB Treasury and Markets Research added that sub-two per cent inflation rates in 2026 will provide room for Bank Negara Malaysia to maintain the OPR at its current level, with hotter, sustained demand-pull inflation being the key trigger for a reassessment of this stance.

Meanwhile, Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd said the upside of GDP growth in 4Q 2025 surprise came mainly from strong services and manufacturing, alongside firm consumption and investment, while net exports remained a drag as imports stayed elevated. 

“This lifted full year 2025 GDP growth to 5.2 per cent, above house forecast of 4.9 per cent,” it said.  

The investment bank said that within ASEAN-5 plus Vietnam, Malaysia recorded the third highest 4Q growth behind Vietnam (8.5 per cent) and Singapore (6.9 per cent), outpacing Indonesia (5.4 per cent), and the Philippines (3.0 per cent). 

For the 2026 GDP growth forecast, it maintained the projection at 4.5 per cent, with upside potential toward 5.0 per cent if current momentum holds.   

-- BERNAMA